Chile IMACEC Economic Activity Year-over-Year
Chile’s IMACEC year-on-year rate is the annual change in the Central Bank of Chile’s monthly economic activity index, a timely proxy for GDP momentum.
Full explanation
Chile’s IMACEC is the Monthly Economic Activity Index published by the Central Bank of Chile. It summarizes activity across branches of the economy in a given month and its year-on-year change is commonly used as an approximation of GDP growth. The calculation uses multiple supply-side indicators weighted by the importance of economic activities in the prior year’s GDP. The release includes original and seasonally adjusted series, as well as mining and non-mining breakdowns.
Why traders watch it
IMACEC gives markets a broad monthly read on Chilean growth before full national accounts are available. Because Chile is sensitive to mining, commodities and domestic demand cycles, the release can influence expectations for CLP, local rates and central-bank policy.
Market interpretation
- FX
- CLP can respond when IMACEC changes expectations for Chilean growth, policy rates or commodity-linked activity.
- Rates
- Local yields may react if the data alter expectations for Central Bank of Chile policy or the growth-inflation mix.
- Equities
- Chilean equities may be affected through expectations for domestic demand, mining output and corporate earnings.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A higher-than-expected reading may indicate stronger economic activity and can support a more resilient growth assessment.
A lower-than-expected reading may indicate softer activity and can raise concern about weaker growth momentum.
The market usually focuses on the forecast surprise, the seasonally adjusted monthly change, and whether mining or non-mining activity drove the result.
Typical volatility
High. Market sensitivity can be high when IMACEC materially changes expectations for growth or central-bank policy, especially during turning points in the Chilean cycle.
Trading considerations
- Check the mining and non-mining split because mining volatility can dominate the headline result.
- Compare the year-on-year rate with the seasonally adjusted monthly change to distinguish trend from base effects.
- Watch copper prices and external-demand indicators when assessing the broader market reaction.
- Remember that IMACEC is revised with national accounts, so initial readings may not be the final view of activity.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.