EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change
A weekly EIA measure of the change in crude oil processed by U.S. refineries, used to assess refinery demand and petroleum supply balances.
Full explanation
EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change shows how U.S. refinery crude inputs have changed from the prior week. Refinery runs represent crude oil processed by refineries into products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and heating oil. The figure is part of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, a widely watched petroleum market release that also covers inventories, imports, exports and production. Because refineries are major buyers of crude oil, changes in runs help traders interpret whether crude inventory moves are being driven by demand from refiners, supply changes or trade flows.
Why traders watch it
The indicator helps explain the connection between crude oil inventories and refined-product inventories. Rising crude runs can increase refinery demand for crude while adding to future product supply; falling runs can reduce crude demand while limiting product output. For macro traders, the data can also matter because fuel prices influence inflation expectations and energy-sensitive currencies and sectors.
Market interpretation
- Crude oil futures
- Can influence expectations for refinery demand and crude inventory draws or builds.
- Gasoline and distillate futures
- Can affect expectations for near-term refined-product supply.
- USD and inflation-sensitive assets
- Usually secondary, but large energy-price moves can affect inflation and risk sentiment.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A higher-than-expected change suggests refineries processed more crude than expected. This may indicate stronger refinery demand for crude, though it can also imply greater future supply of refined products.
A lower-than-expected or negative change suggests refineries processed less crude than expected. This may reflect maintenance, outages, weaker margins or softer fuel-demand expectations.
Higher readings generally point to stronger refinery crude demand; lower readings point to reduced refinery crude demand, with the inventory context determining the market reaction.
Typical volatility
High. The broader EIA weekly petroleum release can generate sharp moves in crude and product futures, especially when refinery runs, inventories and imports all surprise in the same direction.
Trading considerations
- Compare refinery runs with crude oil stocks, gasoline stocks, distillate stocks and crude imports in the same EIA release.
- Check whether the move is seasonal, such as refinery maintenance periods or summer gasoline-demand preparation.
- Regional refinery disruptions can matter more for product spreads than for headline crude prices.
- Watch for revisions and for whether the change is consistent with refinery utilization and production data.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
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