U.S. Factory Orders Month-over-Month

A monthly Census Bureau measure of changes in new orders placed with U.S. manufacturers.

Economic IndicatorsModerate volatilityFactory ordersManufacturing new ordersManufacturers' new ordersM3 factory orders

Full explanation

U.S. Factory Orders MoM tracks the monthly change in new orders received by domestic manufacturers. It comes from the Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders survey, often called the M3 survey. The broader report includes shipments, inventories, new orders and unfilled orders, giving traders a view of current manufacturing activity and possible future production trends.

Why traders watch it

Factory orders are watched because manufacturing demand can lead future output, capital spending and inventory decisions. The data can influence expectations for U.S. growth momentum and, when surprises are large, the path of Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Market interpretation

USD
The dollar may react if the release materially changes expectations for U.S. growth or interest-rate differentials.
U.S. Treasuries
Treasury yields may respond to surprises that affect growth or inflation expectations.
U.S. equities
Cyclical and industrial shares may be sensitive to signals about manufacturing demand and capital spending.

Stronger vs weaker outcomes

Stronger than expected

A higher-than-expected reading may indicate stronger demand for manufactured goods and better near-term production prospects.

Weaker than expected

A lower-than-expected reading may indicate weaker manufacturing demand or a softer pipeline for future production.

In line with expectations

Higher readings generally suggest stronger factory demand; lower readings generally suggest weaker factory demand.

Typical volatility

Moderate. Volatility can rise when the headline surprise is large or when orders for transportation equipment and other large-ticket items swing sharply.

Trading considerations

  • Look beyond the headline to durable goods, nondurable goods, transportation and core capital-goods categories.
  • Check revisions to prior months, which can change the trend signal.
  • Compare new orders with shipments and unfilled orders to judge whether demand is translating into current production.
  • Be aware that the release can overlap with other U.S. data and may have a different impact depending on the broader macro backdrop.

Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.

Related indicators