Today's Trading Plan
EUR/USD · FreePrivateCurrentUpdated —Issue №18Today's Outlook
News-Driven Day
A heavy US data cluster makes today news-led, with cleaner setups most likely after London sets the first range and after the US reaction settles. The main danger is trading the first spike.
Today’s Events
| Action | Time | Event | CCY | Impact | Dangerous Window | Better Window | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | Passenger Vehicles Sales YoY | INR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 01:00 | Our Lady of Mount Carmel | CLP | — | — | Locked | ||
| 02:00 | Interest Rate Decision | KRW | 01:55 – 02:15 | 02:15 onwards | Locked | ||
| 02:00 | Consumer Inflation Expectations | AUD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 04:35 | 52-Week Bill Auction | JPY | — | — | Locked | ||
| 05:30 | Unemployment Rate | EUR | 05:25 – 05:45 | 05:45 onwards | Locked | ||
| 06:00 | Jordan Inflation Rate YoY | — | — | Locked | |||
| 06:00 | Jordan Inflation Rate MoM | — | — | Locked | |||
| 06:00 | 6-Month T-Bill Auction | SGD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 07:00 | GDP YoY | GBP | — | — | Locked | ||
| 07:00 | Manufacturing Production YoY | GBP | — | — | Locked | ||
| 07:00 | Construction Output YoY | GBP | — | — | Locked | ||
| 07:00 | GDP 3-Month Avg | GBP | 06:55 – 07:15 | 07:15 onwards | Locked | ||
| 07:00 | Industrial Production MoM | GBP | 06:55 – 07:15 | 07:15 onwards | Locked | ||
| 07:00 | Goods Trade Balance | GBP | 06:50 – 07:20 | 07:20 onwards | Locked | ||
| 07:00 | Industrial Production YoY | GBP | — | — | Locked | ||
| 07:00 | Balance of Trade | GBP | — | — | Locked | ||
| 07:00 | Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | GBP | 06:50 – 07:20 | 07:20 onwards | Locked | ||
| 07:00 | Manufacturing Production MoM | GBP | 06:55 – 07:15 | 07:15 onwards | Locked | ||
| 07:00 | GDP MoM | GBP | 06:50 – 07:20 | 07:20 onwards | Locked | ||
| 07:30 | Gross Wage YoY | HUF | — | — | Locked | ||
| 08:30 | SNB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | CHF | 08:25 – 08:45 | 08:45 onwards | Locked | ||
| 09:00 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | EUR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 09:00 | Inflation Rate MoM | EUR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 09:00 | Inflation Rate YoY | EUR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 09:00 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | EUR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 09:00 | Budget Balance | TRY | — | — | Locked | ||
| 09:30 | Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves | — | — | Locked | |||
| 09:30 | Angola M3 Money Supply YoY | — | — | Locked | |||
| 09:40 | 30-Year Obligacion Auction | EUR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 09:40 | 3-Year Bonos Auction | EUR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 09:40 | 7-Year Obligacion Auction | EUR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 10:00 | FDI (YTD) YoY | CNY | 09:55 – 10:15 | 10:15 onwards | Locked | ||
| 10:00 | Kyrgyzstan Inflation Rate YoY | — | — | Locked | |||
| 10:00 | Kyrgyzstan Industrial Production YoY | — | — | Locked | |||
| 10:00 | Balance of Trade | EUR | 09:55 – 10:15 | 10:15 onwards | Locked | ||
| 10:00 | OAT Auction | EUR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 10:00 | Treasury Gilt 2036 Auction | GBP | — | — | Locked | ||
| 10:00 | 2029 OAT Auction | EUR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 10:00 | 2031 OAT Auction | EUR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 10:00 | 2033 OAT Auction | EUR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 10:30 | 12-Month DTB Auction | HUF | — | — | Locked | ||
| 11:00 | OATi Auction | EUR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 11:00 | OAT€i Auction | EUR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 11:00 | GDP Growth Annualized | ILS | — | — | Locked | ||
| 11:00 | 2053 OAT€i Auction | EUR | — | — | Locked | ||
| 11:30 | Ghana PPI YoY | — | — | Locked | |||
| 12:00 | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker | GBP | — | — | Locked | ||
| 13:00 | Retail Sales MoM | BRL | 12:55 – 13:15 | 13:15 onwards | Locked | ||
| 13:00 | Retail Sales YoY | BRL | — | — | Locked | ||
| 13:00 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | PLN | — | — | Locked | ||
| 13:15 | Belarus Industrial Production YoY | — | — | Locked | |||
| 13:15 | Housing Starts | CAD | 13:10 – 13:30 | 13:30 onwards | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | Retail Sales MoM | USD | 13:20 – 13:50 | 13:50 onwards | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | USD | 13:20 – 13:50 | 13:50 onwards | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | USD | 13:25 – 13:45 | 13:45 onwards | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | Philly Fed New Orders | USD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | Philly Fed CAPEX Index | USD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | Philly Fed Business Conditions | USD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | Retail Sales Control Group MoM | USD | 13:20 – 13:50 | 13:50 onwards | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | Retail Sales YoY | USD | 13:20 – 13:50 | 13:50 onwards | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | NY Fed Services Activity Index | USD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | USD | 13:20 – 13:50 | 13:50 onwards | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | Continuing Jobless Claims | USD | 13:20 – 13:50 | 13:50 onwards | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | Philly Fed Prices Paid | USD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | USD | 13:20 – 13:50 | 13:50 onwards | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | USD | 13:20 – 13:50 | 13:50 onwards | Locked | ||
| 13:30 | Philly Fed Employment | USD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 15:00 | Ecuador Balance of Trade | — | — | Locked | |||
| 15:00 | Pending Home Sales MoM | USD | 14:55 – 15:15 | 15:15 onwards | Locked | ||
| 15:00 | Pending Home Sales YoY | USD | 14:55 – 15:15 | 15:15 onwards | Locked | ||
| 15:00 | Business Inventories MoM | USD | 14:55 – 15:15 | 15:15 onwards | Locked | ||
| 15:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | USD | 14:55 – 15:15 | 15:15 onwards | Locked | ||
| 15:00 | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | USD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 15:30 | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | USD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 16:00 | Consumer Confidence | COP | — | — | Locked | ||
| 16:30 | 8-Week Bill Auction | USD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 16:30 | 4-Week Bill Auction | USD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 17:00 | 30-Year Mortgage Rate | USD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 17:00 | 15-Year Mortgage Rate | USD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 17:00 | 30-Year Bond Auction | CAD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 17:30 | Fed Logan Speech | USD | 17:25 – 17:45 | 17:45 onwards | Locked | ||
| 18:00 | Paraguay Consumer Confidence | — | — | Locked | |||
| 21:30 | Fed Balance Sheet | USD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 23:45 | Food Inflation YoY | NZD | — | — | Locked | ||
| 00:00 | Fed Jefferson Speech | USD | 23:55 – 00:15 | 00:15 onwards | Locked |
- 01:00INR
Passenger Vehicles Sales YoY
- 01:00CLP
Our Lady of Mount Carmel
- 02:00KRW
Interest Rate Decision
- Dangerous
- 01:55 – 02:15
- Better
- 02:15 onwards
- 02:00AUD
Consumer Inflation Expectations
- 04:35JPY
52-Week Bill Auction
- 05:30EUR
Unemployment Rate
- Dangerous
- 05:25 – 05:45
- Better
- 05:45 onwards
- 06:00
Jordan Inflation Rate YoY
- 06:00
Jordan Inflation Rate MoM
- 06:00SGD
6-Month T-Bill Auction
- 07:00GBP
GDP YoY
- 07:00GBP
Manufacturing Production YoY
- 07:00GBP
Construction Output YoY
- 07:00GBP
GDP 3-Month Avg
- Dangerous
- 06:55 – 07:15
- Better
- 07:15 onwards
- 07:00GBP
Industrial Production MoM
- Dangerous
- 06:55 – 07:15
- Better
- 07:15 onwards
- 07:00GBP
Goods Trade Balance
- Dangerous
- 06:50 – 07:20
- Better
- 07:20 onwards
- 07:00GBP
Industrial Production YoY
- 07:00GBP
Balance of Trade
- 07:00GBP
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
- Dangerous
- 06:50 – 07:20
- Better
- 07:20 onwards
- 07:00GBP
Manufacturing Production MoM
- Dangerous
- 06:55 – 07:15
- Better
- 07:15 onwards
- 07:00GBP
GDP MoM
- Dangerous
- 06:50 – 07:20
- Better
- 07:20 onwards
- 07:30HUF
Gross Wage YoY
- 08:30CHF
SNB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- Dangerous
- 08:25 – 08:45
- Better
- 08:45 onwards
- 09:00EUR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
- 09:00EUR
Inflation Rate MoM
- 09:00EUR
Inflation Rate YoY
- 09:00EUR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
- 09:00TRY
Budget Balance
- 09:30
Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves
- 09:30
Angola M3 Money Supply YoY
- 09:40EUR
30-Year Obligacion Auction
- 09:40EUR
3-Year Bonos Auction
- 09:40EUR
7-Year Obligacion Auction
- 10:00CNY
FDI (YTD) YoY
- Dangerous
- 09:55 – 10:15
- Better
- 10:15 onwards
- 10:00
Kyrgyzstan Inflation Rate YoY
- 10:00
Kyrgyzstan Industrial Production YoY
- 10:00EUR
Balance of Trade
- Dangerous
- 09:55 – 10:15
- Better
- 10:15 onwards
- 10:00EUR
OAT Auction
- 10:00GBP
Treasury Gilt 2036 Auction
- 10:00EUR
2029 OAT Auction
- 10:00EUR
2031 OAT Auction
- 10:00EUR
2033 OAT Auction
- 10:30HUF
12-Month DTB Auction
- 11:00EUR
OATi Auction
- 11:00EUR
OAT€i Auction
- 11:00ILS
GDP Growth Annualized
- 11:00EUR
2053 OAT€i Auction
- 11:30
Ghana PPI YoY
- 12:00GBP
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
- 13:00BRL
Retail Sales MoM
- Dangerous
- 12:55 – 13:15
- Better
- 13:15 onwards
- 13:00BRL
Retail Sales YoY
- 13:00PLN
Core Inflation Rate YoY
- 13:15
Belarus Industrial Production YoY
- 13:15CAD
Housing Starts
- Dangerous
- 13:10 – 13:30
- Better
- 13:30 onwards
- 13:30USD
Retail Sales MoM
- Dangerous
- 13:20 – 13:50
- Better
- 13:50 onwards
- 13:30USD
Jobless Claims 4-week Average
- Dangerous
- 13:20 – 13:50
- Better
- 13:50 onwards
- 13:30USD
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
- Dangerous
- 13:25 – 13:45
- Better
- 13:45 onwards
- 13:30USD
Philly Fed New Orders
- 13:30USD
Philly Fed CAPEX Index
- 13:30USD
Philly Fed Business Conditions
- 13:30USD
Retail Sales Control Group MoM
- Dangerous
- 13:20 – 13:50
- Better
- 13:50 onwards
- 13:30USD
Retail Sales YoY
- Dangerous
- 13:20 – 13:50
- Better
- 13:50 onwards
- 13:30USD
NY Fed Services Activity Index
- 13:30USD
Initial Jobless Claims
- Dangerous
- 13:20 – 13:50
- Better
- 13:50 onwards
- 13:30USD
Continuing Jobless Claims
- Dangerous
- 13:20 – 13:50
- Better
- 13:50 onwards
- 13:30USD
Philly Fed Prices Paid
- 13:30USD
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
- Dangerous
- 13:20 – 13:50
- Better
- 13:50 onwards
- 13:30USD
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
- Dangerous
- 13:20 – 13:50
- Better
- 13:50 onwards
- 13:30USD
Philly Fed Employment
- 15:00
Ecuador Balance of Trade
- 15:00USD
Pending Home Sales MoM
- Dangerous
- 14:55 – 15:15
- Better
- 15:15 onwards
- 15:00USD
Pending Home Sales YoY
- Dangerous
- 14:55 – 15:15
- Better
- 15:15 onwards
- 15:00USD
Business Inventories MoM
- Dangerous
- 14:55 – 15:15
- Better
- 15:15 onwards
- 15:00USD
NAHB Housing Market Index
- Dangerous
- 14:55 – 15:15
- Better
- 15:15 onwards
- 15:00USD
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
- 15:30USD
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
- 16:00COP
Consumer Confidence
- 16:30USD
8-Week Bill Auction
- 16:30USD
4-Week Bill Auction
- 17:00USD
30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 17:00USD
15-Year Mortgage Rate
- 17:00CAD
30-Year Bond Auction
- 17:30USD
Fed Logan Speech
- Dangerous
- 17:25 – 17:45
- Better
- 17:45 onwards
- 18:00
Paraguay Consumer Confidence
- 21:30USD
Fed Balance Sheet
- 23:45NZD
Food Inflation YoY
- 00:00USD
Fed Jefferson Speech
- Dangerous
- 23:55 – 00:15
- Better
- 00:15 onwards
Today's Trading Windows
Today's Guidance
Build the day around the calendar: mark the London range, avoid the USD release spike, and only trade after price closes beyond a level or clearly rejects it.
