United States Advance Retail Inventories Excluding Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Month-over-Month
This measures the monthly change in the value of inventories held by U.S. retailers, excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers. It helps show whether retailers are building or drawing down stock outside the volatile auto sector.
Overview
The series is released in the Census Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators report and is based on advance estimates of retail end-of-month inventories. The “ex autos” measure removes motor vehicle and parts dealers, which can swing sharply because of vehicle supply and pricing conditions. The calendar value is the month-over-month percent change, typically on a seasonally adjusted basis and not adjusted for price changes.
Why traders watch it
Traders watch inventories because they can influence GDP tracking, production expectations and views on consumer demand. Surprises may affect rate and dollar pricing when they change expectations for real activity or future goods-sector output.
How to interpret the result
A stronger-than-expected increase may suggest retailers are restocking or that goods are accumulating faster than sales. A weaker or negative reading may suggest leaner inventories or stronger sell-through, but the implication depends on retail demand and supply-chain context.