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EUR/USD · FreePublicIssue №61

Historical Trading Plan

Viewing the published Trading Plan for WEDNESDAY 19 AUGUST. Live market monitoring is only available for today's Trading Plan.

AsianLondonNew York

Today's Outlook

Patience Around Major News

ECB President Lagarde Speech at 08:10, EUR CPI at 10:00 and FOMC Minutes at 19:00 UK can move EUR/USD sharply. Wait for price to settle after each event, and avoid chasing the first sharp move.

Trading summary checklist
Volatility
Elevated
Liquidity
Normal
Sentiment
Cautious
Difficulty
Hard

Today’s Events

All times UK time
  • 02:30AUD

    Wage Price Index YoY

    Previous
    3.2%
    Forecast
    3.2%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 02:30AUD

    Wage Price Index QoQ

    Previous
    0.8%
    Forecast
    0.8%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 03:00

    Bahrain GDP Growth Rate YoY

    Previous
    4.6%
    Forecast
    2.4%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 03:45AUD

    RBA Hauser Speech

    Previous
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 04:35JPY

    52-Week Bill Auction

    Previous
    1.2066%
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 04:35JPY

    BoJ JGB Purchase

    Previous
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:00GBP

    PPI Output YoY

    Previous
    3.5%
    Forecast
    3.2%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:00GBP

    Inflation Rate MoM

    Previous
    0.1%
    Forecast
    0.3%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:00GBP

    Retail Price Index YoY

    Previous
    3.0%
    Forecast
    3.3%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:00GBP

    PPI Input MoM

    Previous
    -2.0%
    Forecast
    0.0%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:00GBP

    PPI Output MoM

    Previous
    0.0%
    Forecast
    0.2%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:00GBP

    Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    2.6%
    Forecast
    2.9%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:00GBP

    Core Inflation Rate MoM

    Previous
    0.3%
    Forecast
    0.1%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:00GBP

    Core Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    2.6%
    Forecast
    2.5%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:00GBP

    PPI Core Output YoY

    Previous
    2.6%
    Forecast
    2.7%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:00GBP

    Retail Price Index MoM

    Previous
    0.3%
    Forecast
    0.8%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:00GBP

    PPI Core Output MoM

    Previous
    0.5%
    Forecast
    0.5%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:00GBP

    PPI Input YoY

    Previous
    7.3%
    Forecast
    6.6%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:30CHF

    Industrial Production YoY

    Previous
    -7.1%
    Forecast
    -4.7%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:00EUR

    Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    3.2%
    Forecast
    2.7%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:00EUR

    Inflation Rate MoM

    Previous
    0.0%
    Forecast
    -0.1%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:00EUR

    Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    3.2%
    Forecast
    2.6%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:00EUR

    Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM

    Previous
    0.0%
    Forecast
    -0.4%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:00

    Georgia Balance of Trade

    Previous
    $-854.5M
    Forecast
    $-930.0M
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:00

    Georgia Unemployment Rate

    Previous
    14.4%
    Forecast
    14.5%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:00

    Moldova PPI YoY

    Previous
    -0.4%
    Forecast
    -0.2%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:00EUR

    Current Account

    Previous
    €109.8M
    Forecast
    €210.0M
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:00Scheduled
    Market timing

    Volatility usually increases as European banks start trading.

  • 08:10EUR

    ECB President Lagarde Speech

    Previous
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:30IDR

    Loan Growth YoY

    Previous
    12.67%
    Forecast
    13.0%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:30IDR

    Lending Facility Rate

    Previous
    6.5%
    Forecast
    6.5%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:30IDR

    Deposit Facility Rate

    Previous
    4.75%
    Forecast
    4.75%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:30IDR

    Interest Rate Decision

    Previous
    5.75%
    Forecast
    5.75%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:30PLN

    Consumer Confidence

    Previous
    -10.2
    Forecast
    -10.0
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:00EUR

    Current Account s.a

    Previous
    €25.1B
    Forecast
    €22.1B
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:00EUR

    Current Account

    Previous
    €-6.2B
    Forecast
    €32.0B
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:00ZAR

    Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    5.0%
    Forecast
    4.5%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:00ZAR

    Core Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    4.1%
    Forecast
    4.0%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:00ZAR

    Inflation Rate MoM

    Previous
    0.7%
    Forecast
    0.3%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:00ZAR

    Core Inflation Rate MoM

    Previous
    0.6%
    Forecast
    0.2%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:25DKK

    DGB Auction

    Previous
    2.45%
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:25DKK

    2035 DGB Auction

    Previous
    2.92%
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:30

    Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves

    Previous
    $14.9B
    Forecast
    $14.7B
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:30

    Iceland Interest Rate Decision

    Previous
    7.75%
    Forecast
    8.0%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:30

    Serbia Current Account

    Previous
    $-145.0M
    Forecast
    $-250.0M
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:00CNY

    FDI (YTD) YoY

    Previous
    -5.0%
    Forecast
    -6.0%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:00

    Bulgaria Current Account

    Previous
    €-598.0M
    Forecast
    €-680.0M
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:00EUR

    Inflation Rate MoM

    Previous
    -0.1%
    Forecast
    2.8%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:00EUR

    Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    2.8%
    Forecast
    2.9%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:00EUR

    CPI

    Previous
    103.02
    Forecast
    103.22
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:00EUR

    Core Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    2.4%
    Forecast
    2.5%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:05NOK

    NGB Auction

    Previous
    4.63%
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:05SEK

    2036 SGB Auction

    Previous
    2.9994%
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:05NOK

    05/2039 NGB Auction

    Previous
    4.36%
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:15EUR

    26-Week Bill Auction

    Previous
    2.32%
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:30EUR

    10-Year Bund Auction

    Previous
    3.13%
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:30HUF

    5-Year Bond Auction

    Previous
    5.36%
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:30HUF

    3-Year Bond Auction

    Previous
    5.31%
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:30HUF

    10-Year Bond Auction

    Previous
    5.37%
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:00EUR

    Residential Property Prices MoM

    Previous
    0.5%
    Forecast
    0.5%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:00EUR

    Residential Property Prices YoY

    Previous
    6.2%
    Forecast
    5.7%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:00ILS

    Inflation Expectations

    Previous
    1.5%
    Forecast
    1.6%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:00

    Montenegro Current Account

    Previous
    -594.87
    Forecast
    -500.0
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:30EUR

    Current Account

    Previous
    €-632.82M
    Forecast
    €295.0M
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 12:00ZAR

    Retail Sales MoM

    Previous
    0.1
    Forecast
    -1.0
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 12:00ZAR

    Retail Sales YoY

    Previous
    2.3%
    Forecast
    2.6%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 12:00USD

    MBA Mortgage Applications

    Previous
    3.6
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 12:00USD

    MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate

    Previous
    6.77
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 12:00USD

    MBA Mortgage Market Index

    Previous
    248.6
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 12:00USD

    MBA Purchase Index

    Previous
    157.9
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 12:00USD

    MBA Mortgage Refinance Index

    Previous
    744.4
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 13:00

    Albania Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    3.2%
    Forecast
    3.4%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 13:00Scheduled
    Market timing

    London and New York overlap — the most active period of the day.

  • 15:00

    Ecuador Balance of Trade

    Previous
    $450.43M
    Forecast
    $473.3M
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change

    Previous
    0.026
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Gasoline Stocks Change

    Previous
    -0.968
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Gasoline Production Change

    Previous
    -0.001
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change

    Previous
    1.611
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Distillate Stocks Change

    Previous
    -0.01
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change

    Previous
    0.05
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

    Previous
    17.422
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Crude Oil Imports Change

    Previous
    1.768
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change

    Previous
    0.192
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 16:00COP

    Balance of Trade

    Previous
    -1.59
    Forecast
    -0.8
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 16:00COP

    Imports YoY

    Previous
    10.6
    Forecast
    10.0
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 16:30USD

    17-Week Bill Auction

    Previous
    3.755%
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 17:00CAD

    2-Year Bond Auction

    Previous
    2.888%
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 17:00RUB

    PPI MoM

    Previous
    -0.1
    Forecast
    0.6
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 17:00RUB

    PPI YoY

    Previous
    10.5%
    Forecast
    10.0%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 18:00USD

    20-Year Bond Auction

    Previous
    5.163%
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 19:00USD

    FOMC Minutes

    Previous
    Forecast
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 21:00

    El Salvador PPI YoY

    Previous
    3.18%
    Forecast
    3.2%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 22:00Scheduled
    Market timing

    Spreads widen and liquidity thins as the trading day rolls over.

  • 22:30

    Jamaica Interest Rate Decision

    Previous
    5.5%
    Forecast
    5.5%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming

Today's Trading Windows

Your trading day, in chronological order.

  • 07:45-08:00 UK

    Caution WindowUpcoming

    Before London Opens

    Use the Asian session high and low because London has not established a direction.

    Volatility · Quiet
    Related toAsian SessionUpcoming
  • 08:00-08:30 UK

    Dangerous WindowUpcoming

    ECB President Lagarde speaks at 08:10 UK, which can cause sudden EUR/USD price changes.

    Do not enter EUR/USD until price settles after the 08:10 UK speech.

    Volatility · High
    Related toLondon SessionExecution risk elevatedUpcoming
  • 09:15-09:50 UK

    Caution WindowUpcoming

    Between EUR Events

    The 10:00 UK EUR CPI leaves limited time for EUR/USD price action to settle.

    Volatility · Quiet
    Related toLondon SessionUpcoming
  • 09:50-10:20 UK

    Dangerous WindowUpcoming

    EUR CPI is scheduled for 10:00 UK and can cause a sharp EUR/USD move.

    Wait for EUR/USD to form a clear high and low after the 10:00 UK release.

    Volatility · High
    Related toEUR CPI · 10:00London SessionExecution risk elevatedUpcoming
  • 10:20-11:50 UK

    Fair WindowUpcoming

    After EUR CPI

    Use this window only if EUR/USD forms clear highs and lows after EUR CPI.

    Volatility · Moderate
    Related toLondon SessionUpcoming
  • 11:55-12:15 UK

    Dangerous WindowUpcoming

    The MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate is scheduled for 12:00 UK and may move USD pricing.

    Watch EUR/USD without entering during the first price change after 12:00 UK.

    Volatility · High
    Related toLondon SessionExecution risk elevatedUpcoming
  • 12:15-15:20 UK

    Best WindowUpcoming

    London and New York Overlap

    Require EUR/USD to hold an established direction or remain between a clear high and low.

    Volatility · Moderate
    Related toLondon SessionLondon / NY OverlapNew York SessionHigh liquidityUpcoming
  • 15:20-15:45 UK

    Dangerous WindowUpcoming

    EIA Gasoline Stocks Change and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change share the 15:30 UK release time.

    Avoid entering EUR/USD while price responds to the two 15:30 UK releases.

    Volatility · High
    Related toLondon SessionLondon / NY OverlapNew York SessionExecution risk elevatedUpcoming
  • 15:45-18:50 UK

    Fair WindowUpcoming

    Before FOMC Minutes

    Trade only if EUR/USD price changes are orderly before FOMC Minutes at 19:00 UK.

    Volatility · Moderate
    Related toLondon SessionLondon / NY OverlapNew York SessionHigh liquidityUpcoming
  • 18:50-19:30 UK

    Dangerous WindowUpcoming

    FOMC Minutes are scheduled for 19:00 UK and can cause sharp USD price changes.

    Do not enter EUR/USD during the first sharp move after 19:00 UK.

    Volatility · High
    Related toUSD FOMC Minutes · 19:00New York SessionExecution risk elevatedUpcoming
  • 19:30-20:00 UK

    Caution WindowUpcoming

    After FOMC Minutes

    Wait for EUR/USD to form a clear high and low after FOMC Minutes before considering an entry.

    Volatility · Quiet
    Related toNew York SessionUpcoming

Today's Guidance

Mark the Asian session high and low. Wait for London price to hold beyond either point before considering EUR/USD.

Today's guidance illustration

Alternative scenario

If

After FOMC Minutes at 19:00 UK, a candle on the 1-hour chart closes beyond the day's high or low.

Then

Stop trading between the pre-19:00 high and low. Wait for price to establish a new high and low.

Guidance — not a prediction. Today's plan may need to be reassessed if this trigger materialises.

Today's Trading Checklist

Run through every step below before placing a trade today.

  1. Step 01Upcoming

    Treat repeated crossings of the Asian session high or low as a reason to wait.

  2. Step 02Upcoming

    Treat the two 15:30 UK USD releases as one combined risk point, not separate trade opportunities.

  3. Step 03Upcoming

    Keep position risk balanced when scheduled events reduce the time available for confirmation.

Pre-trade discipline — check every box before you trade.

Tip: Copy this checklist into today’s Workspace and tick items off as you trade.

Trading checklist illustration

Build the habit. Understand the market.

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