Ivey PMI s.a.
The seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI is a monthly Canadian survey indicator showing whether purchasing activity is rising or falling compared with the previous month.
Full explanation
The Ivey PMI is a monthly survey-based indicator of Canadian business activity. It asks a panel of purchasing managers whether their organizations' dollar value of purchases was higher, lower or unchanged versus the previous month. The seasonally adjusted version removes typical calendar and seasonal patterns to make month-to-month comparisons easier. Readings above 50 indicate purchases generally increased from the prior month, while readings below 50 indicate they generally decreased.
Why traders watch it
Traders watch the Ivey PMI as a timely signal of Canadian demand and business momentum before many official activity data are released. It can affect expectations for Bank of Canada policy, Canadian bond yields and CAD when it differs materially from forecasts.
Market interpretation
- CAD foreign exchange
- A surprise can move CAD if it changes views on Canadian growth or Bank of Canada policy expectations.
- Canadian government bonds
- Stronger or weaker activity signals can affect front-end and intermediate yields through rate-expectation channels.
- Canadian equities
- The release can influence cyclical-sector sentiment, especially when it confirms or contradicts other activity data.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A stronger-than-expected reading may point to firmer Canadian activity and potentially support CAD or yields if it changes rate expectations. A weaker-than-expected reading may suggest softer activity, though the market response can depend on inflation, employment data and broader risk sentiment.
A higher-than-expected reading may suggest stronger purchasing activity and firmer near-term business momentum.
A lower-than-expected reading may suggest softer purchasing activity and weaker near-term business momentum.
For the Ivey PMI, 50 is the broad dividing line between expanding and contracting purchase activity versus the prior month.
Typical volatility
Moderate. PMI surveys are diffusion-style indicators and do not measure the exact size of output or GDP growth. Single-month moves can be noisy, and the seasonally adjusted headline should be read alongside the unadjusted data and sub-indexes such as employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices.
Trading considerations
- Compare the headline with the 50 threshold and with the market consensus, not just the prior reading.
- Check whether the move is confirmed by sub-indexes such as employment, prices and supplier deliveries.
- Treat one-month swings cautiously because survey indicators can be noisy.
- Consider the release alongside Canadian labour-market, inflation and GDP data.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
Related indicators
15-Year Mortgage Rate
A weekly Freddie Mac measure of average U.S. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage borrowing costs.
Absa Manufacturing PMI
A monthly survey indicator tracking whether South African manufacturing conditions are improving or weakening.
ADP Employment Change
ADP Employment Change is a private estimate of changes in U.S. private-sector jobs based on payroll data from ADP.
Ai Group Australian Industry Index
A monthly survey-based gauge of whether activity in Australian industrial sectors is expanding or contracting.
Albania Balance of Trade
Albania Balance of Trade measures the difference between the value of Albania’s goods exports and goods imports.
Albania Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
A monthly measure of Albania’s consumer-price inflation compared with the same month a year earlier, based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices.