Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation MoM
A monthly U.S. measure of new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods that excludes transportation equipment.
Full explanation
This release shows the monthly change in new orders received by U.S. manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation equipment. Durable goods are products intended for extended use, such as machinery, electronics, and appliances. Removing transportation helps reduce the effect of large, irregular aircraft and vehicle orders, which can make the headline durable goods figure volatile. The U.S. Census Bureau compiles the estimate from its Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders survey, and new orders are measured net of cancellations.
Why traders watch it
Traders use it as a timely indication of demand in U.S. manufacturing and, in some categories, business equipment spending. Surprises can affect expectations for growth, inflation pressures, and the interest-rate outlook, with potential implications for the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.
Market interpretation
- U.S. dollar
- An unexpected result may influence perceptions of U.S. growth and the policy outlook, which can affect USD pricing.
- U.S. Treasury yields
- The release may affect expectations for economic activity and interest rates, particularly when it materially differs from consensus.
- U.S. equities
- Manufacturing-sensitive sectors may react to evidence of changing orders demand, though the detailed industry breakdown can matter.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A larger-than-expected increase may be interpreted as evidence of firmer manufacturing demand, while a weaker reading may be seen as a sign of softer demand. The market response can depend on the detail behind the figure, revisions, and other data released around the same time.
A higher-than-expected monthly reading may be viewed as a sign of stronger demand across parts of the manufacturing sector.
A lower-than-expected reading may be viewed as a sign of softer manufacturing demand or a slower flow of new orders.
Compare the result with expectations, the prior-month revision, and the underlying industry detail rather than relying on the headline percentage alone.
Typical volatility
Moderate. Monthly orders can be volatile even after transportation is excluded. This is an advance estimate and may be revised, so traders often assess it alongside the headline durable goods release, capital-goods measures, shipments, and prior-month revisions.
Trading considerations
- Check whether the prior month was revised, as revisions can change the apparent trend.
- Compare the ex-transportation result with headline durable goods orders and the release’s industry detail.
- Distinguish orders from shipments: orders indicate incoming demand, while shipments relate more directly to current output.
- Be aware that the figure is an advance estimate and can be revised in later Census releases.
- Consider other U.S. data released near the same time, as combined news can shape the market reaction.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
Related indicators
15-Year Mortgage Rate
A weekly Freddie Mac measure of average U.S. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage borrowing costs.
Absa Manufacturing PMI
A monthly survey indicator tracking whether South African manufacturing conditions are improving or weakening.
ADP Employment Change
ADP Employment Change is a private estimate of changes in U.S. private-sector jobs based on payroll data from ADP.
Ai Group Australian Industry Index
A monthly survey-based gauge of whether activity in Australian industrial sectors is expanding or contracting.
Albania Balance of Trade
Albania Balance of Trade measures the difference between the value of Albania’s goods exports and goods imports.
Albania Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
A monthly measure of Albania’s consumer-price inflation compared with the same month a year earlier, based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices.