NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI
A monthly official survey indicator of business conditions across China’s services and construction sectors.
Full explanation
The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey-based indicator of business conditions in China’s non-manufacturing economy, including services and construction. Its headline measure is the business activity index, which shows whether activity is expanding or contracting compared with the previous month. It is calculated as a diffusion index from purchasing-manager responses; a reading above 50 generally indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 generally indicates contraction. Supporting components cover areas such as new orders, employment, prices, inventories, delivery times and business expectations.
Why traders watch it
It provides a timely official signal on momentum in China’s large services and construction sectors. Traders may use it to assess implications for Chinese growth, domestic demand, commodity consumption, policy expectations, CNY assets and broader regional risk sentiment.
Market interpretation
- CNY and China-linked FX
- Surprises can alter perceptions of domestic growth conditions and the policy outlook.
- Commodity-linked currencies and commodities
- The data may affect expectations for Chinese demand, particularly when construction conditions change materially.
- Asian equities and global risk sentiment
- The release can contribute to changing views on Chinese and regional economic momentum.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A result above expectations, or a move further above 50, may point to firmer non-manufacturing activity. A result below expectations, or a move further below 50, may point to softer conditions. Market interpretation can also depend on the services and construction breakdowns, new-orders component and comparison with the manufacturing PMI.
A reading above expectations, especially if it rises further above 50, may be interpreted as evidence of firmer activity in China’s services and construction sectors.
A reading below expectations, especially if it falls further below 50, may be interpreted as evidence of softer non-manufacturing conditions.
Above 50 generally signals expansion from the prior month; below 50 generally signals contraction.
Typical volatility
High. This is a sentiment-based diffusion index rather than a direct measure of output growth. Seasonal effects, survey composition, component divergence and subsequent economic releases can affect how the headline is interpreted.
Trading considerations
- Compare the headline business activity index with the 50 threshold and the prior reading.
- Check the services and construction breakdowns, which can move differently.
- Review new orders and employment for context on demand and labour conditions.
- Consider the release alongside the NBS Manufacturing PMI and Composite PMI Output Index.
- Allow for wider spreads and fast initial price moves around the scheduled publication time.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
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