Selling Price Expectations
A business-survey measure of whether firms expect to raise or lower their selling prices in the months ahead.
Full explanation
Selling Price Expectations show whether surveyed businesses expect to raise, cut or keep their selling prices unchanged over the coming months. The result is a forward-looking measure of firms’ intended pricing behaviour, rather than a reading of prices already charged. It is drawn from the European Commission’s harmonised business surveys and is commonly expressed as a balance: the share expecting increases minus the share expecting decreases. It can be considered alongside sectoral confidence and other survey indicators when assessing near-term inflation pressures.
Why traders watch it
Traders watch the measure as a timely signal of businesses’ pricing intentions, which can inform expectations for inflation and the future policy outlook in the euro area.
Market interpretation
- EUR foreign-exchange pairs
- Unexpected changes can affect how markets assess euro-area inflation and interest-rate expectations.
- Euro-area government bonds and rate markets
- The release can contribute to repricing of the expected inflation and monetary-policy path, particularly when it confirms or conflicts with other price indicators.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A higher-than-expected reading may indicate that more firms anticipate raising prices, potentially adding to inflation concerns. A lower-than-expected reading may point to softer planned price growth or a larger share of firms expecting price reductions.
A higher balance means relatively more surveyed firms expect to increase selling prices than to reduce them. It may be viewed as a sign of firmer prospective price pressure.
A lower balance means fewer firms expect price increases, or more expect reductions. It may be viewed as a sign of softer prospective price pressure.
Higher readings can suggest firmer planned price increases, while lower readings can suggest softer planned pricing.
Typical volatility
Moderate. This is a survey balance of expectations, not an inflation rate or a direct measure of realised selling prices. Its meaning can vary with the sector coverage, changes in demand and costs, and the wider set of business-survey results.
Trading considerations
- Check whether the movement is broad-based across manufacturing, services, retail trade or construction rather than concentrated in one sector.
- Compare the result with consumer-price inflation, producer-price measures, wage data and other business-survey price components.
- Treat the release as an expectations measure: planned price changes may not be fully passed through to realised prices.
- Consider the complete European Commission survey release, including confidence and employment-expectations measures, rather than interpreting one component alone.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
Related indicators
15-Year Mortgage Rate
A weekly Freddie Mac measure of average U.S. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage borrowing costs.
Absa Manufacturing PMI
A monthly survey indicator tracking whether South African manufacturing conditions are improving or weakening.
ADP Employment Change
ADP Employment Change is a private estimate of changes in U.S. private-sector jobs based on payroll data from ADP.
Ai Group Australian Industry Index
A monthly survey-based gauge of whether activity in Australian industrial sectors is expanding or contracting.
Albania Balance of Trade
Albania Balance of Trade measures the difference between the value of Albania’s goods exports and goods imports.
Albania Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
A monthly measure of Albania’s consumer-price inflation compared with the same month a year earlier, based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices.