Selling Price Expectations

A business-survey measure of whether firms expect to raise or lower their selling prices in the months ahead.

Economic IndicatorsModerate volatilityprice expectationsfirms' price expectationsselling-price outlookexpected output prices

Full explanation

Selling Price Expectations show whether surveyed businesses expect to raise, cut or keep their selling prices unchanged over the coming months. The result is a forward-looking measure of firms’ intended pricing behaviour, rather than a reading of prices already charged. It is drawn from the European Commission’s harmonised business surveys and is commonly expressed as a balance: the share expecting increases minus the share expecting decreases. It can be considered alongside sectoral confidence and other survey indicators when assessing near-term inflation pressures.

Why traders watch it

Traders watch the measure as a timely signal of businesses’ pricing intentions, which can inform expectations for inflation and the future policy outlook in the euro area.

Market interpretation

EUR foreign-exchange pairs
Unexpected changes can affect how markets assess euro-area inflation and interest-rate expectations.
Euro-area government bonds and rate markets
The release can contribute to repricing of the expected inflation and monetary-policy path, particularly when it confirms or conflicts with other price indicators.

Stronger vs weaker outcomes

A higher-than-expected reading may indicate that more firms anticipate raising prices, potentially adding to inflation concerns. A lower-than-expected reading may point to softer planned price growth or a larger share of firms expecting price reductions.

Stronger than expected

A higher balance means relatively more surveyed firms expect to increase selling prices than to reduce them. It may be viewed as a sign of firmer prospective price pressure.

Weaker than expected

A lower balance means fewer firms expect price increases, or more expect reductions. It may be viewed as a sign of softer prospective price pressure.

In line with expectations

Higher readings can suggest firmer planned price increases, while lower readings can suggest softer planned pricing.

Typical volatility

Moderate. This is a survey balance of expectations, not an inflation rate or a direct measure of realised selling prices. Its meaning can vary with the sector coverage, changes in demand and costs, and the wider set of business-survey results.

Trading considerations

  • Check whether the movement is broad-based across manufacturing, services, retail trade or construction rather than concentrated in one sector.
  • Compare the result with consumer-price inflation, producer-price measures, wage data and other business-survey price components.
  • Treat the release as an expectations measure: planned price changes may not be fully passed through to realised prices.
  • Consider the complete European Commission survey release, including confidence and employment-expectations measures, rather than interpreting one component alone.

Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.

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