U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM
A monthly Census Bureau measure of new orders received by U.S. manufacturers for long-lasting goods.
Full explanation
U.S. Durable Goods Orders measures the monthly change in the value of new orders placed with U.S. manufacturers for products expected to last at least three years, such as machinery, vehicles and appliances. The month-on-month figure compares seasonally adjusted orders with the previous month. It is drawn from the Census Bureau's Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders survey and is reported net of cancellations. Because the figures are values rather than inflation-adjusted volumes, price changes can also affect the result.
Why traders watch it
The release offers a timely view of demand for manufactured goods and business equipment, which can inform expectations for U.S. production, investment and economic momentum. It can therefore affect U.S. dollar and interest-rate markets, particularly when it differs materially from expectations.
Market interpretation
- U.S. dollar
- A sizeable surprise can move the dollar as participants reassess the outlook for U.S. activity and policy expectations.
- U.S. Treasury market
- The data can influence rate expectations, especially when underlying business-equipment measures reinforce or challenge the headline.
- U.S. equity index futures
- Manufacturing-sensitive sectors may react to changes in perceived demand and capital-spending conditions.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A stronger-than-expected increase may be interpreted as evidence of firmer manufacturing demand or investment, while a weaker result may be read as softer demand. The market response can depend on the transportation, defense and core-capital-goods details as well as the broader economic backdrop.
A higher-than-expected monthly increase can be viewed as a possible sign of stronger demand for manufactured goods, though the composition of orders is important.
A lower-than-expected reading can be viewed as a possible sign of weaker demand or softer investment conditions, subject to revisions and volatile components.
Compare the headline with transportation-excluding and core-capital-goods measures, then check revisions to prior months.
Typical volatility
High. Durable-goods orders are often volatile because large aircraft and defense contracts can move the headline sharply. Initial estimates may be revised, and a monthly percentage change does not separate changes in order volumes from changes in prices.
Trading considerations
- Expect the initial market focus to include both the headline change and the breakdown by category.
- Check whether transportation equipment or defense orders account for most of the move.
- Compare orders excluding transportation and nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft when assessing underlying business-equipment demand.
- Review revisions to earlier months, which can change the apparent trend.
- Consider the release alongside other manufacturing, investment and broader economic indicators rather than in isolation.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
Related indicators
15-Year Mortgage Rate
A weekly Freddie Mac measure of average U.S. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage borrowing costs.
Absa Manufacturing PMI
A monthly survey indicator tracking whether South African manufacturing conditions are improving or weakening.
ADP Employment Change
ADP Employment Change is a private estimate of changes in U.S. private-sector jobs based on payroll data from ADP.
Ai Group Australian Industry Index
A monthly survey-based gauge of whether activity in Australian industrial sectors is expanding or contracting.
Albania Balance of Trade
Albania Balance of Trade measures the difference between the value of Albania’s goods exports and goods imports.
Albania Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
A monthly measure of Albania’s consumer-price inflation compared with the same month a year earlier, based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices.