U.S. Durable Goods Orders Excluding Defense MoM
A monthly measure of changes in U.S. orders for long-lasting manufactured goods, excluding defense-related orders.
Full explanation
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Excluding Defense MoM measures the monthly percentage change in new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods, after removing defense-related orders. It shows how demand for items such as machinery, vehicles, equipment, and other products expected to last at least three years is changing outside the defense sector. The Census Bureau's M3 survey counts new orders received during the month net of cancellations; the series is typically reported on a seasonally adjusted basis. Because it still includes civilian transportation orders, large aircraft contracts can materially affect the result.
Why traders watch it
The release offers an early view of demand in U.S. manufacturing and business spending. It can influence expectations for economic growth, industrial activity, interest rates, and the U.S. dollar.
Market interpretation
- U.S. dollar
- Can affect views of U.S. growth and the interest-rate outlook, particularly when the result differs substantially from expectations.
- U.S. Treasury market
- May contribute to repricing of growth and policy expectations, although the response also depends on other simultaneous releases.
- Equity index futures and industrial sectors
- Can draw attention to manufacturing-sensitive companies and sectors when the report points to a notable change in demand.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A stronger-than-expected monthly increase may be interpreted as a sign of firmer manufacturing demand, while a weaker reading may be interpreted as softer demand. Market reactions can depend on transportation-related orders, revisions, and other data released at the same time.
A higher-than-expected reading may be viewed as evidence of stronger demand for manufactured durable goods outside defense, though the detail behind the result is important.
A lower-than-expected reading may be viewed as evidence of softer demand, though a single monthly result can be affected by large or irregular orders.
Stronger readings can suggest firmer manufacturing demand; weaker readings can suggest softer demand, but transportation orders and revisions can change the picture.
Typical volatility
High. Durable-goods orders can be volatile from month to month because a small number of large contracts can move the total. Excluding defense does not exclude civilian aircraft or all transportation-related volatility, and initial estimates may be revised.
Trading considerations
- Compare the result with the market consensus and the prior month's revised figure.
- Check whether transportation, especially civilian aircraft, was a major driver of the move.
- Review related measures such as orders excluding transportation and nondefense capital-goods data where available.
- Expect prices and spreads to be more sensitive when this release appears alongside other major U.S. data.
- Treat the initial estimate as provisional because subsequent M3 releases can revise earlier figures.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
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