U.S. Factory Orders Excluding Transportation

U.S. Factory Orders ex Transportation is derived from the Census Bureau's Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders survey. It focuses on manufacturers' new orders while excluding transportation equipment, a category that can swing sharply because of large aircraft, defense or vehicle orders. The measure is used to assess the breadth of manufacturing demand beyond one of the most volatile sectors. It is typically released with the broader factory orders data and should be read with shipments, inventories, unfilled orders and capital goods details.

Manufacturing orders are a forward-looking signal for production, capital spending and business confidence. Excluding transportation can make the signal less noisy, which helps traders evaluate whether order growth is broad-based or concentrated in a volatile category.

USD

Can influence the dollar through changes in U.S. growth expectations and relative-rate pricing.

U.S. Treasuries

Stronger or weaker order momentum can affect growth assumptions and Treasury yield expectations.

U.S. equities

Manufacturing and industrial shares may react to evidence of stronger or weaker order pipelines.

Moderate. Market reaction is usually moderate, but it can be larger when the result sharply changes the view of U.S. growth or arrives near key Federal Reserve events.

• Review revisions to prior months because they can change the trend more than the latest headline surprise.
• Compare the ex-transportation result with total factory orders to see whether transportation drove the headline move.
• Use durable goods, core capital goods orders and ISM manufacturing indicators as companion signals.
• Remember that the figures are current-dollar values, so price changes can affect the reported level.

Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.