U.S. Retail Sales Control Group MoM
A monthly measure of the change in a narrower, GDP-relevant slice of U.S. retail sales, excluding several volatile or separately treated categories.
Full explanation
U.S. Retail Sales Control Group MoM measures the monthly change in a narrower slice of retail sales that is often used to estimate consumer-goods spending in GDP. It excludes several volatile or GDP-treated categories, commonly motor vehicles and parts, gasoline stations, building materials and garden equipment stores, and food services. The underlying sales data come from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services survey, which provides early national estimates of sales by retail and food-service businesses. The figures are reported in nominal dollars, so they reflect both changes in quantities bought and changes in prices.
Why traders watch it
Traders watch the control group because it is a timely gauge of U.S. household goods spending and feeds into expectations for real consumption and GDP growth. Surprises can affect U.S. dollar sentiment, Treasury yields and equity-index pricing by changing views on demand momentum and Federal Reserve policy risks.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A stronger-than-expected reading may suggest firmer consumer demand and a stronger contribution from goods spending to growth. A weaker-than-expected reading may suggest softer household demand, more price sensitivity or a weaker near-term consumption impulse.
Typical volatility
High. The release is preliminary and can be revised. It is not inflation-adjusted, excludes some important consumer-spending categories, and can be affected by seasonal adjustment, holidays, weather and one-off spending patterns.
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