Market Intelligence
What is happening in the economies behind your currencies
Selected developments from central banks and official statistics agencies, explained in plain English — why each one matters for FX, not what to trade.
- NZD28 Aug
New Zealand-UAE CEPA: officials cite tariff removal and early export gains across goods and services
The New Zealand Government says exporters are already seeing benefits one year into the New Zealand–UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). It cites 7% higher New Zealand goods exports to the UAE (to $1.4bn) over the first year, and two-way goods trade above $1.6bn to July 2026, alongside growth in dairy exports (+15% and +$128m to $1bn), wood exports (+70%) and sheep meat exports (+61%). The release also mentions services activity in tourism and trade facilitation steps such as customs clearance commitments for perishable goods, paperless trade and recognition of New Zealand food safety and biosecurity systems, with tariff removal on 98.5% of exports from day one.
Mixed signalsRead - USD28 Aug
Puerto Rico: real GDP rises in 2023 on export strength; consumption and investment also up
BEA reports Puerto Rico’s real GDP increased 3.0% in 2023 after a 2.1% fall in 2022. The BEA notes the main driver was higher exports, with personal consumption expenditures, government spending and private fixed investment also increasing, partly offset by lower private inventory investment. Imports rose (and therefore subtracted from GDP).
Broadly neutralRead - USD28 Aug
BEA: U.S. current-account deficit narrowed in 3Q 2025 to $226.4bn
BEA says the U.S. current-account deficit narrowed by $22.8 billion (down 9.2%) to $226.4 billion in the third quarter of 2025. The previous quarter’s deficit was revised to $249.2 billion, and the deficit fell to 2.9% of current-dollar GDP from 3.3%.
Mixed signalsRead - USD28 Aug
BEA: U.S. net international investment position at -$27.61trn at end-3Q 2025
BEA reports the U.S. net international investment position fell further to -$27.61 trillion at the end of the third quarter of 2025, with foreign assets of $41.27 trillion and liabilities of $68.89 trillion (net -$26.16 trillion at end of the second quarter, revised).
Unclear at this stageRead - USD28 Aug
US personal income and PCE tick higher in December; saving rate at 3.6%
The BEA reported that personal income rose by $86.2bn (0.3% monthly) in December. Disposable personal income increased by $75.7bn, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by $91.0bn (0.4%). Personal saving was $830.8bn and the personal saving rate was 3.6%.
Mixed signalsRead - USD28 Aug
US January 2026 personal income and spending: DPI up, PCE higher, saving rate at 4.5%
BEA estimates for January show personal income up $113.8bn (0.4%), with disposable personal income (after personal current taxes) increasing $219.9bn. PCE rose $81.1bn (0.4%) and personal outlays increased $85.8bn. Personal saving was $1.05trn and the saving rate came in at 4.5%.
Mixed signalsRead - USD28 Aug
US April 2026 personal income and spending: DPI down slightly, PCE up, saving rate at 2.6%
The BEA reports that personal income fell by less than $0.1bn in April, while disposable personal income declined $19.9bn. Personal consumption expenditures rose $111.1bn (0.5%), with total personal outlays up $114.0bn. Personal saving was $611.7bn and the personal saving rate was 2.6%.
Mixed signalsRead - USD28 Aug
BEA: New foreign direct investment into the U.S. rises sharply in 2025
Foreign direct investors’ expenditures in the U.S. totaled $232.2 billion in 2025, up 49.5% from 2024, with most spending going to acquisitions of existing U.S. businesses.
Supportive for the currencyRead - USD28 Aug
BEA: Q1 2026 current-account deficit widens; net international investment position remains deeply negative
The U.S. current-account deficit widened to $226.8 billion in Q1 2026 (2.6% up, 2.9% of GDP), while the net international investment position was -$21.27 trillion at quarter-end.
Mixed signalsRead - USD28 Aug
BEA: May 2026 personal income and PCE rise; saving rate edges around 3%
Personal income, disposable income, and PCE all increased in May, with personal saving at $704.2 billion and the personal saving rate at 3.0%.
Mixed signalsRead - USDEURGBPCAD28 Aug
BEA: US direct investment positions rise in 2025; Europe-led increases
End-2025 US direct investment abroad and inward positions increased, with Europe—especially the UK and Luxembourg—leading outward gains and Europe leading inward gains.
Broadly neutralRead - USD28 Aug
BEA: June personal income and PCE rise slightly; saving rate at 2.7%
Personal income, disposable income and PCE increased modestly in June, while the personal saving rate was 2.7%.
Mixed signalsRead - USD28 Aug
US trade: goods and services deficit narrows to $73.3bn in June
The US goods and services trade deficit decreased in June to $73.3bn from $77.6bn in May, with imports falling more than exports; the goods deficit fell and the services surplus increased.
Supportive for the currencyRead - USD28 Aug
BEA: July personal income up $115.1bn; PCE up 0.2% and saving rate 3.0%
Personal income rose by $115.1bn (0.4% monthly). Disposable income increased $125.9bn, personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2%, and the personal saving rate was 3.0%.
Mixed signalsRead - USD28 Aug
BEA second estimate: US real GDP rises at a 1.5% annual rate in Q2 2026
Second-estimate GDP growth in Q2 came in at a 1.5% annual rate, with consumer spending, exports and investment lifting activity, partly offset by lower government spending and rising imports.
Mixed signalsRead - GBP28 Aug
ONS Household Costs Indices show how 12-month cost growth varies across UK household groups
The ONS publishes Household Costs Indices for UK household groups for April to June 2026, including 12-month growth rates, expenditure shares and contributions, to show how household cost pressures differ by group.
Mixed signalsRead - USD28 Aug
Minutes of the Federal Reserve Board’s discount rate meetings on June 8 and June 17, 2026
The Federal Reserve published minutes from Board discount rate meetings held on June 8 and June 17, 2026, documenting the discussion around the discount window policy framework.
Unclear at this stageRead - USD28 Aug
FOMC minutes (July 28–29, 2026): details on policymakers’ discussion of the policy outlook
The minutes from the July 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting capture how Committee participants assessed the economy and discussed the appropriate stance of monetary policy, offering trader-relevant context for USD rates and financial conditions.
Mixed signalsRead - USD28 Aug
BLS: CPI up 0.1% in July; unemployment 4.1%; payrolls -23k; hourly earnings +$0.02 (prelim)
US data point to mildly higher consumer prices, an unchanged PPI reading, and a cooling labour market, with small gains in average hourly earnings and solid productivity growth.
Mixed signalsRead